Mechanics
Prophet is a parimutuel prediction market: everyone who picks the same side shares one pool, and winners split the losing pool. No orderbook. No liquidity provider. No house edge. Just math and a public source.
2%
Fee on winnings
1.5×
Max conviction
2h
Dispute window
01 · The pool
When you bet YES, your SOL joins the YES pool. When someone bets NO, their SOL joins the NO pool. The percentage you see is simply the crowd's money split — not an orderbook quote.
At resolution, the losing pool is split among the winning side, pro-rata by stake and conviction weight. You always keep your own stake. A 2% fee applies to the winnings.
Conviction lab
Change the pools. Watch the math.
Est. payout if correct
2.92 SOL
ROI
+192%
Payout assumes the market resolves now with the current pools. Real odds move with every bet.
Try itConviction decay
time-weightedAt open
1.50×
Halfway
1.25×
At close
1.00×
02 · Conviction
Your conviction multiplier is locked when you bet. It starts at 1.5× at market open and decays linearly to 1× at the deadline. It boosts your share of the losing pool, not your stake.
Example
Two winners each staked 1 SOL. One bet at open (1.5× weight), one at the deadline (1.0×). The early bettor receives 60% of the losing pool, the late bettor 40%.
Conviction rewards people who price the future before it is obvious. It also discourages last-minute sniping of stale odds. The multiplier only affects the split among winners; it never changes the displayed crowd odds or your stake.No lockups. No early exit. Resolution is the exit.
03 · Resolution
Every market names its source and freezes its rule before the first bet. Resolution is a reading, not a vibe. If a market can't be verified, it doesn't get listed.
Price and market-cap markets resolve against a named public feed at the deadline. The source and rule are frozen at listing.
Dexscreener · CoinGecko
Graduation, dev sells, holder concentration, and wallet behavior resolve against Solana program state or a named RPC.
Solana RPC · pump.fun
Subjective markets go to staked resolvers. They bond $PROPHET, vote, and get slashed if the crowd overturns them on appeal.
Staked vote · dispute window
Market standards
Dispute flow
Resolution posted
The oracle publishes the outcome, the source reading, and a timestamp.
Dispute window
2 hours for auto-oracle markets, 24 hours for Council markets. Anyone can open a dispute with a bond.
Appeal vote
Token holders vote on the evidence. The losing side's bond is slashed and paid to the winners.
Final settlement
The market is final. Winning positions can claim; the resolution note stays on the market forever.
04 · Fees
There is no deposit fee, no withdrawal fee, and no fee on losing stakes. The 2% fee is charged on the losing pool when a market resolves. It funds the flywheel, not a private jet.
50%
Buyback & burn
30%
Oracle stakers
20%
Treasury
Worked example
no convictionA 1 SOL YES bet at 1.0× weight receives 1 SOL stake + 1/40 × 58.8 SOL = 2.47 SOL. A 1 SOL YES bet at 1.5× weight receives 1 SOL + 1.5/40.5 × 58.8 SOL = 3.18 SOL.
FAQ
The parts most prediction markets bury in a docs folder.
Risk disclosure
Prediction markets involve risk of total loss. Prophet is a beta product using paper SOL; no real funds are custodied. Mainnet use will be subject to jurisdiction restrictions, geofencing, and a separate risk review. Nothing on this page is financial, legal, or tax advice.
Every market is a public argument with a deadline and a receipt. Pick one, or create the one that's missing.